Ukraine’s Crisis Economy in 10 New Stats

by Gordon M. Hahn

1. Ukraine currently ranks fourth highest on the misery index (a measure of economic dysfunction derived from the unemployment rate plus inflation rate) behind Venezuela (worst), Argentina, and South Africa. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/the-15-most-miserable-economies-in-the-world
2. In February prices rose 5.5% in Ukraine. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/91924-ukraincy-stali-aktivnej-obmenivatsja-avtomobiljami
3. In February annual inflation was projected at 34.5%, in January the projection was 28.5%. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/91924-ukraincy-stali-aktivnej-obmenivatsja-avtomobiljami
4. “(R)elatively abysmal income growth” will not cushion Ukrainian households against surging inflation. Ukrane’s $8,494 gross domestic product per capita beats only the Philippines among the countries in the International Monetary Fund’s proxy for resident income. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/the-15-most-miserable-economies-in-the-world
5. Unemployment is estimated to rise to 9.5% in 2015 compared to 8.9 in the third quarter of 2014. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-02/the-15-most-miserable-economies-in-the-world
6. Ukraine’s state debt will reach 94% of GDP this year compared to 73% last year. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/92294-mvf-uvidel-uvelichenie-gosdolga-ukrainy-do-100-mlrd
7. Already insolvent, Ukraine’s debt is set to nearly double by 2020, according to a new estimate by the IMF, from $58 billion today to $103 billion. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/92294-mvf-uvidel-uvelichenie-gosdolga-ukrainy-do-100-mlrd
8. Ukrainians will now pay a 1.5% fee when the exchange currency. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/92371-pri-prodazhe-valjuty-ukraincam-nachali-vzimat-voennyj-sbor
9. Nearly 80 percent of Ukrainians plan to sell their cars. http://business.vesti-ukr.com/91924-ukraincy-stali-aktivnej-obmenivatsja-avtomobiljami
10. Shell decided not to extract shale natural gas from a bassein located in Kharkov Oblast, deeming such a project as unprofitable. www.economica.com.ua/oil/article/41945233.html

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Gordon M. Hahn is an Analyst and Advisory Board Member of the Geostrategic Forecasting Corporation, Chicago, Illinois; Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group, San Jose, California Analyst/Consultant, Russia Other Points of View – Russia Media Watch; and Senior Researcher and Adjunct Professor, MonTREP, Monterey, California. Dr Hahn is author of three well-received books, Russia’s Revolution From Above (Transaction, 2002), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), which was named an outstanding title of 2007 by Choice magazine, and The ‘Caucasus Emirate’ Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland Publishers, 2014).  He has been a Senior Associate at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (2011-2013) and a Visiting Scholar at the Hoover Institution and the Kennan Institute. Dr. Hahn has authored hundreds of articles in scholarly journals and other publications on Russian, Eurasian and international politics and wrote, edited and published the Islam, Islamism, and Politics in Eurasia Report (IIPER) at CSIS from 2010-2013.