Some in the West are becoming aware that not only is Russian going to win the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War in its present configuration of limited NATO involvement and that Russia will not shy away from war with Europe or NATO should elements in the West continue to escalate. At the same time, Europe continues to seek ways to gain escalation dominance to little effect and utter futility. Each round of escalation brings a more intense and effective escalation on Russia’s part against Ukraine, hastening to the day when the front, army, economy, regime, and state collapse.
Russian forces are moving ever more rapidly west to the Dnieper River, threatening to cut Ukraine in half. In doing so, tey have taken territory in regions other than those the Kremlin has claimed as Russian and incorporated into the federation and its constitution. In the bargain, Kharkiv and Sumy cities, two provincial capitols, are slowly being surrounded. Moreover, three encirlcelments of Ukrainian troops are in the making. The last two Ukrainian strongholds in Donbass’s Donetsk are soon to fall. Orekhov, the gateway to the major southern Ukrainan industrial city and provincial capitol, Zaporozhe, is being taken. Meanwhile, the military is manned by middle-aged and elderly men and a strong cohort of younger, ideologically extremist neofascists, whose status in state and society is growing as a result of effective Azov propaganda and Zelenskiy’s persistent sponsorship in a futile attempt to assuage their lust for power and blood. At the same time Ukrainian reports indicate the Kiev’s army is suffering from high casualty rates, desertions, and draft evasion, prompting talk of drafting woman. In addition, there are severe fuel shortages (50% cuts for some brigades), planned salary delays starting in October, and a missile shortages for F-16s, forcing pilots to use gun cannons against Russia’s increasingly sophisticated and maneuverable drones. ………………..
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.