Ukraine is in the midst of a political crisis – on top of military, financial, and electricity crises – that amounts to a pre-coup situation. Westerners have been under the delusion promoted by many so-called political scientists that Ukraine in 2004 and 2014 underwent what in the parlance are called ‚social revolutions‘ or ‚revolutions from below,‘ from society. As in the case oft he overthrow of the Soviet communist single-party system and the collapse of the Soviet state in 1991, this is a misnomer or, at the least, an overstatement. At the most, revolution was just part of the tale of these political transformations, which in fact were closer to coups and/or revolutions from above. In such cases, the matter of illegally overthrowing the government involves one regime- or state-based group replacing another in power (coup) or leading such an effort in ordert o fundamentally change the social, political, and economic order (revolution from above).
In the Soviet case, we witnessed a revolution from below, with a revolution from below nascen but aborted. In Ukraine 2004, there was a palace coup. In 2014, there was a coup supported by a nascent revolution from bleow that was coopted and so aborted. That Maidan ‚revolution‘ was partially a revolution from above in that part of the ruling elite, representing oligarchic interests, took control of the popular Maidan demonstrations. Subsequently, revolutionary ultranationalist and neofascist groups to a considerable degree from below, orchestrated a coup which it sparked by carrying out a false flag massacre of both demobnstrators and police and which it then blamed on Viktor Yanukovych’s ‚old regime.‘ However, the neofascists never superceded the oligarch element of the revolution from above. The two forces uneasily shared power, with the ultranationalists and neofascists given secondary positions fort he most part in the organs of coercion: police, military, and security organs. Thus, Right Sector founder and former ‚coordnator‘, Dmitro Yarosh, has repeatedly called for ‚finishing the nationalist revolution.‘
Today, Ukraine is suffering from a third post-Soviet crisis; one not yet a revolutionary situation but on the cusp of one. Ukraine is, however, already in a pre-coup situation. Former president Petro Poroshenko, his European Solidarity party, and other civilian opposition leaders are moving towards a removal of Zelenskiy from power by one method or another as the ‚Mindichgate‘ corruption scandal explodes on the background of collapsing battlefronts, a disintegrating army, and the prospect of a winter without electricity, heat, and other basic living needs. …..
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.