Seymour Hersh’s publication disclosing that ostensibly Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Gen. Valerii Zalyuzhniy is conducting secret ceasefire or peace talks with his Russian counterpart, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Valerii Gerasimov suggests that developments are moving fast around what I recently called Ukraine’s intensifying coup poker of pre-coup confrontation between Zalyuzhniy and Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy (https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/general-to-general and https://gordonhahn.com/2023/11/27/coup-poker-ukraines-deteriorating-civil-military-relations-updated/). Putting aside the details of and the host of other players involved in the game for the moment, the specifics of Hersh’s report raise some interesting questions about one of those players, and that player is not Ukrainian. Hersh claimed that unidentified sources in the US administration had informed him about these talks centered on an agreement that would allow Russia to keep all territory it currently controls in Ukraine – basically Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, and the left bank territories of Zaporozhe and Kherson – in exchange for Ukraine being allowed NATO membership without the right to station or host NATO troops or offensive weapons on Ukrainian territory (https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/general-to-general).
By publicizing what are supposedly secret talks, Hersh has thrown a lit match into an already explosive mix of military defeat, civil-military tensions, Ukrainin and Western war fatigue, and growing public support for Zalyuzhniy over Zelenskiy. The operative element in the story is ‘US government sources.’ It would seem a highly unusual step both for Hersh but especially an anonymous US official to leak such sensitive information, if he/she wanted the negotiations to move forward. In other words, this seems like an attempt to scuttle the Zalyuzhiy-Gerasimov talks in order to prevent an agreement. But such an attempt also exposes Zalyuzhnyi to charges of treason that can be leveled by Zelenskiy and Ukrainian law enforcement and security organs. This is especially true since Zelenskiy has repeatedly rejected peace talks and just a few days reiterated his rejection and intent to continue fighting for the return of all of Ukraine’s 1991 teritory, and since Zalyuzhniy has been questioned in connection with treason investigations of Ukrainian generals, who supposedly had prepared Ukraine’s southern defense against the February 2022 Russian invasion, as I noted in a previous post (https://gordonhahn.com/2023/11/27/coup-poker-ukraines-deteriorating-civil-military-relations-updated/). However, Hersh also reports one of his government sources also had told him that the US government had communicated to Zelenskiy that peace talks would go ahead with or without him. This means that the US stands behind the talks and has handed their conduct over to Zalyuzhniy over Zelenskiy’s objections, and, therefore, Washington presumably has the general’s back. All this occurred as rumors swirl in Kiev, Washington, and Brussels that Zelenskiy will soon fire Zalyuzhniy.
In the hours before this report was published Zelenskiy had toured the front lines meeting with commanders and top generals such as Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskiy and Brig. Gen. Gen. Oleksandr Tarnavskiy, but excluding Zalyuzhniy, who reportedly visited the souther front region in Kherson, where, incidentally, or not, the supposed treason had occurred.
In addition, on the same day, Zelenskiy’s wife, Yelena, told a podcast of the neocon/deep state The Economist that she did not want her husband to run for reelection, though, it should be noted, Zelenskiy announced there will be no elections in Ukraine until the war ends (https://www.economist.com/podcasts/2023/12/01/olena-zelenska-ukraines-first-lady-on-the-less-visible-scars-of-war and https://strana.news/news/451868-elena-zelenskaja-ne-khochet-chtoby-ee-muzh-izbiralsja-na-novyj-srok.html). Moreover, a new poll was published showing for the first time, that Zalyuzhniy’s popularity rating among Ukrainians exceeds that of Zelenskiy. The poll shows Ukrainians 63 percent fully supporting Zalyuzhnyi, 19 percent mostly, while Zelenskiy’s marks are 39 and 33 percent. The poll also shows that in an election confrontation, Zelenskiy would need a second round to defeat Zalyuzhniy, and Zelenskiy’s margin of victory (42-40 percent) is less than the margin of error (https://strana.news/news/451914-ocherednoj-opros-doverija-k-zaluzhnomu-i-zelenskomu.html and https://www.ng.ru/news/782578.html).
So it seems a continuation of Zelenskiy’s presidency is under attack from abroad by Ukraine’s key backer as well as at home in Ukraine, including from within his own household.
The important question in all this is the following. Is Washington confronting Zelenskiy with the threat of a Zalyuzhniy-led military coup should the Ukrainian president fire his top general or seek otherwise to scuttle the talks? Yes, that is one plausible interpretation of events and jibes with the hapless Biden administration’s need to solve Ukraine in an American election year. Another, less likely explanation of these events, is that Hersh’s piece whether it has foundation or not, is a leak intended in Washington to provoke a military coup or even chaos in Kiev by way of a coup in order to justify some next NATO move. Probably the least likely but not entirely dismissible explanation is that the leak to Hersh is intended by elements within the Biden administration to scuttle talks the CIA had discovered Zalyuzhniy was involved and prompt Zelenskiy to act against him. That Zalyuzhniy and Gerasimov are talking is conceivable. Early on in the war Zalyuzhniy noted he had read Gerasimov’s works, and opposing commanders often develop a begrudging respect and affinity for their opponent. Either way, things in Ukraine are coming to a head rapidly, and everything portends poorly for the future of Zelenskiy, the Maidan regime, and the Ukrainian state and society.
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.
Alexander Mercouris noted that this Hersh report seems not credible. In particular, why would Gerasimov be allowed to negotiate anything with Zaluzhnie? Gerasimov is neither a diplomat nor is he empowered to represent Russia’s sovereign interests in diplomatic affairs. Equally, Zaluzhnie is not the head of government of Ukraine – it is not clear at all that Ukraine’s actual head of government would accept anything Zaluzhnie negotiated even were the above Russian-side issues not a concern.
The only thing Zaluzhnie is empowered to do would be a Robert E. Lee-style surrender of his own military command a la Appomattox.
There is also the question of why Russia would accept the proposal outlined. The proposal looks far more like Western fantasies about a frozen conflict as opposed to anything Russia would even theoretically be interested in.
Russia already de facto controls these territories – they represent zero concessions on Ukraine’s part. Ukraine joining NATO would explicitly be against the precise reason why the SMO was started to begin with, and the “no NATO parts” are explicitly relying on Western and Ukrainian fidelity – both of which have been repeatedly shown to be lacking per Minsk II.
One (Gerasimov) or both (unlikely) could have been delegated to preliminarily talk. But no way Russia will agree to Ukr in NATO, so unlikely there were talks. Likely CIA disinformation op.