In Riyadh, Saudi Arabia today Ukraine accepted the U.S. proposal to begin a 30-day ceasefire and talks with Moscow. The joint American-Ukrainian announcement reads: “an immediate, interim 30-day ceasefire, which can be extended by mutual agreement of the parties, and which is subject to acceptance and concurrent implementation by the Russian Federation” (www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-united-states-ukraine-meeting-in-jeddah/). This is another small step of progress in U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive pursuit in Ukraine, for which he should be applauded. Thus, far he has enticed Moscow with the promise of normnalized relations, the lifting of sanctions, renewed trade, and cooperation on key international issues, most notably Iran’s nuclear weapons potential. On the other side, he has put the stubbornly deluded Ukrainian President, Volodomyr Zelenskiy, in a vice squeezed by demanding Zelenskiy negotiate from Ukraine’s presently weak and weakening position on the battlefronts, freezing intelligence and arms assistance, and delaying the signing of a U.S.-Ukrainian raw materials and infrastructure deal. Despite Ukraine’s agreement to a ceasefire and talks with Moscow after years of rejecting any negotiations with Russia as long as Vladimir Putin remains in president (and one wonders whether the law forbidding such negotiations will be repealed), problems remain, and many obstacles need to be overcome before the Riyadh process can bring peace.
Russian officials have repeatedly stated they will not accept a ceasefire agreement and will continue fighting until a full-fledged peace agreement is reached. A ceasefire has been rejected precisely because the Russians suspect any pause in the fighting will be used to halt Russia’s mounting offensives and to rearm Ukraine. Indeed, the Ameerican-Ukrainian statement on the ceaefire agreement declares that the U.S. “will immediately lift the pause on intelligence sharing and resume security assistance to Ukraine” (www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-united-states-ukraine-meeting-in-jeddah/). Trump’s national security advisor Michael Waltz confirmed this, adding that “the current PDA (presidential drawdown authority)… will proceed to the Ukrainians” (https://www.state.gov/joint-statement-on-the-united-states-ukraine-meeting-in-jeddah/). This remark relates to the Biden administration’s last use of PDA directed to Ukraine in Septeber 2024: “On September 26, 2024, the Department notified Congress of the intent to direct the drawdown of up to approximately $5.55 billion in defense articles and services from DoD stocks for military assistance to Ukraine under Presidential Drawdown Authority” (www.state.gov/bureau-of-political-military-affairs/use-of-presidential-drawdown-authority-for-military-assistance-for-ukraine). Waltz’s emphasis on the ‘current PDA’ authority is perhaps a tacit allusion to the fact that the Trump has not and may not use PDA to support in Ukraine in future, perhaps depending on Kiev’s willingess to negotiate, despite the inherent contradictiopn in demanding peace talks while supplying weapons. For Ukraine, this may not be a contradiction with an opportunity: to drag out talks while it rearms its forces along the contact line. The Russians will be watching closely and have limited patience. All this threatens the durability of any direct Russian-Ukrainian talks that may ensue.
We will see if this agreement simply backs Putin into a corner, forcing him to agree to the kind of ceasefire he has repeatedly stated Russia would not accept. Putin’s refusal could bring all negotiating progress to a rapid halt, if Trump is not prepared to offer more goodies to Moscow or return to extracting more concessions from Kiev or waiting until the current PDA authority expires. The collapse of Ukraine’s Kursk salient and continuing Russian gains along almost the entire battle front will eventually yield more flexibility by Kiev, presumably. But it is not clear that Zelenskiy controls all his forces, and provocative escalations can be organized by Ukrainian neofascist and other opponents of peace with Moscow in Kiev. Again, the obstacles to peace remain, and they are many.
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NEW BOOK
EUROPE BOOKS, 2022
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RECENT BOOKS
MCFARLAND BOOKS, 2021
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MCFARLAND BOOKS, 2018
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.
You are assuming that the WEST (including the US) has the military power to do conventional war…where’s the beef?
Europe doesn’t without the US. That’s certain