The following are some of the revelations ands results of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, as I see them.
THE WAR
NATO expansion was the main cause of the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, in particular the NATOization of Ukraine’s military and intelligence apparati instead of Western pressure on Kiev to fulfil its obligations under the Minsk 2 accord. Other key causes include Ukraine’s deployment of tens of thousands of troops near the separatist LNR and DNR and the US’s January 2022 refusal to pledge not to station ballistic missiles in Ukraine .
Russian Vladimir Putin’s 23 February 2022 ‘full-scale invasion’ was an attempt at coercive diplomacy to force Ukraine to abide by the Minsk agreements by signing a corresponding treaty, and the attempt succeeded, since negotiations ensued immediately after the ‘invasion’ and an agreement was initialed by scuttled by Western refusal to provide security guarantees and urging Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy to fight and level a ‘strategic defeat’ on Russia.
Without and perhaps even with full-scale NATO military involvement in the war — with hundred of thousands of boots on the ground — Ukraine was never in a position to win a war against Russia.
Ukraine is losing the war, and its army, regime, state and society are almost certain to collapse if the war lasts a year or two more.
The war’s use of drones and satellite technology have changed the nature of war fighting, strategy and tactics and marks or at least has sparked a revolution in military affairs.
AI and robotics will change the nature of war further.
UKRAINE ………………… . . . . . . .
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.