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November 15, 2010

CONTENTS:

  • SUMMARY OF JIHADI TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN OCTOBER 2010 AND JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER 2010
  • NEW ANNOUNCEMENTS
    • NEW AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL WORLD ALMANAC OF ISLAMISM
    • HAHN TO SPEAK AT CSIS CONFERENCE “THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS: RUSSIA’S TINDERBOX”

* IIPER is written and edited by Dr. Gordon M. Hahn unless otherwise noted.  Research assistance is provided by Leonid Naboishchikov, Daniel Painter, Seth Gray, and Daria Ushakova.

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SUMMARY OF CE TERRORIST ACTIVITY IN OCTOBER 2010 AND JANUARY THROUGH OCTOBER 2010

CORRECTION: Due to a miscalculation and typo I misreported the estimated number of jihadi-related attacks and violent incidents in Dagestan in September of this year (IIPER, No. 27).  The correct figure for September was 35 attacks/incidents not 58, making a total of 200 attacks/incidents in Dagestan as of October 1, 2010.  This makes an estimated total of 69 attacks/incidents overall in Russia in September, not 92.  It also means that there have been approximately 459 attacks/incidents in Russia as of October 1, not the previously reported figure of approximately 482.  In addition, Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) reported in October that law enforcement agencies had prevented 61 terrorist attacks, presumably in the first nine months of 2010.[1]

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October 2010 saw at least approximately 47 terrorist attacks and jihad-related violent incidents in Russia driven by the Caucasus Emirate (and its breakaway Nokchicho Vilaiyat mujahedin) ‘jihad-related incidents’.  These included of some 10 special counter-terrorist operations undertaken by law enforcement that led to the killing, wounding, or capture of mujahedin or of security forces.  These 47 attacks/incidents led to at least approximately 31 state agents (civilian officials and military, police and intelligence personnel) being killed and 50 wounded, and 14 civilians wounded.  No civilians were killed as a result of jihad related violence in October.  This brings the total for the first ten months of this year to at least some 506 attacks/incidents, the overwhelming majority of which were attacks initiated by mujahedin.  Those 506 attacks/incidents have led to at least approximately 259 state agents being killed and 481 wounded, for a total of 740 casualties among state agents.  For comparison, Russian Deputy Prosecutor Ivan Sydoruk announced that in the first nine months of this year 205 personnel of law enforcement bodies were killed and 489 were wounded.[2]  On the civilian side, according to my count, 112 have been killed and 493 wounded, bringing the total number of civilian casualties to 605.  The total number of killed among civilians and state agents resulting from CE activity 371, and the total number of wounded is 1,098.  Thus, the estimated total number of all casualties among state agents and civilians so far this year is 1,469.

Looking at the individual regions, Dagestan continues, as it has since spring, to be the jihad’s center of gravity, with 224 attacks so far this year through October.  Dagestan’s mujahedin have carried out approximately 50 percent more attacks in the republic than they did in all of last year, not including the two Dagestani female suicide bombers they sent to attack the Moscow subway system in March, killing 40 and wounding nearly 101.  The KBR is still seeing the second highest level of jihadi violence with 100 attacks/incidents.  There have been three attacks so far this year in Karachai-Cherkesia (KChR), which along with the KBR, is considered by the CE mujahedin to be the territory of their United Vilaiyat of Kabardia, Balkaria, and Karachai (OVKBK).  By contrast, Ingushetia’s mujahedin have been responsible for 88 attacks/incidents, and Chechnya remains the laggard of the four main CE vilaiyats, having carried out 74 attacks during the first ten months of 2010.  This is less than one-third the number carried out by the Dagestani mujahedin.

For comparison, FSB and NAK Chairman Aleksandr Bortnikov reported that the number of attacks in Ingushetia and Chechnya have declined in 2011 from 2009 by 45 percent and 46 percent, respectively, while the situation in Dagestan and the KBR “remains complex.”[3]  Russia’s MVD chief Rashid Nurgaliev, claiming that Russian law enforcement and security organs had “leveled a very serious hit” on Dagestan’s mujahedin, stated that there had been 174 attacks in Dagestan in the first nine months of 2010 compared to 154 during the same period in 2009.[4]  I counted 200 mujahedin attacks and jihadi-related incidents (including counter-terrorist operations) in Dagestan during the first nine months of this year.  The following numbers comprise Nurgaliev’s previous total figures for number of attacks in the first nine months of 2009 and 2010.  This year law enforcement and security personnel had been subjected to weapons fire 73 times, compared with 68 times during the same period last year, and had been attacked using explosives 40 times this year, compared with 29 during the same period last year.  During counter-terrorist operations in the first nine months of this year state personnel had been attacked 61 times compared with 57 during the same period last year.[5] According to Ingushetia prosecutor, there were “more than 90 operations” carried out by mujahedin in Ingushetia against police and MVD officials in the republic during the first nine months of this year.[6]

My data shows that Dagestan continues to be the most deadly republic for state agents, with at least approximately 134 killed there through October of this year compared to some 59 in Chechnya, 29 in the KBR, and 28 in Ingushetia.  Regarding overall casualties among state agents, the Dagestani mujahedin are also the most deadly, having inflicted 347 compared to 169 by Chechnya-based mujahedin, 135 by Ingushetia mujahedin, and 73 by the United Vilaiyat of Kabardia, Karachai, and Balkaria (OVKBK, covering the KBR and KChR) mujahedin.  The Chechen mujahedin’s attacks appear to be the most effective in that they produce the highest number of casualties per attack on average.  For comparison, according to Russian MVD chief Rashid Nurgaliev, 89 law enforcement organ personnel had been killed, and 171 had been wounded in Dagestan during the first nine months of this year.[7]  The Russian news agency Regnum, citing Dagestani law enforcement, reported a month earlier that 104 non-civilian state agents (81 MVD, 10 FSB, and 12 military personnel, one prison guard) and 17 non-official civilians were killed in Dagestan in the first eight months of 2010.[8]  However, the Dagestan police’s data, which make a total of 121 killed in Dagestan (in contrast to my figure of 157), does not include civilian officials or killings in September. According to the Ingushetia prosecutor’s office, an estimated 90 attacks in Ingushetia during the first nine months of this year killed 32 and wounded 109 police and MVD officials and servicemen in Ingushetia.  These figures do not include casualties among FSB and military units in Ingushetia.[9]

Civilian casualties have been highest in Dagestan as well with at least approximately 98 (31 killed, 67 wounded) this year, followed in descending order by 44 in the KBR (7 killed, 37 wounded), 31 in Ingushetia (12 killed, 19 wounded), and 27 in Chechnya (1 killed, 26 wounded).  However, if one looks at the entire territory of the CE’s Ingushetia-based mujahedin, the so-called G’alg’aiche Vilaiyat (GV), which includes both the Republics of Ingushetia and North Ossetia, then the Ingush mujahedin turn out to be the most dangerous to civilians.  North Ossetia has seen two suicide bombings that killed 17 and wounded 154.  Thus, the GV has been responsible for 173 civilian casualties and 202 overall casualties in the first ten months of this year; still less than half of the Dagestani mujahedin’s leading overall number of 445 casualties inflicted.  Outside of the North Caucasus, Moscow leads in the number of civilian casualties as a result of the March 29th subway bombing that killed 40 and wounded more than 100.

In the North Caucasus republics overall casualties were highest in Dagestan with approximately 445 (165 killed, 280 wounded), followed by 195 in Chechnya (60 killed, 135 wounded), 165 in Ingushetia (40 killed, 125 wounded), and 117 in the KBR (37 killed, 80 wounded).  Thus, Dagestan’s mujahedin have inflicted almost half of the overall number of casualties in the four main Muslim republics, 445 out of 922, and almost half of the casualties among state agents in the four main Muslim republics, 347 out of 724.  Moreover, the Dagestanis were also behind the most deadly attack so far this year – the March 29th Moscow subway suicide bombings that killed 40 and wounded 101.  If one includes the casualties resulting from the operations carried out in North Ossetia by the Ingush G’alg’aiche Vilaiyat (GV) mujahedin (2 state agents killed, 3 wounded, 17 civilians killed, 154 wounded), then the GV mujahedin have been responsible for 351 casualties (69 killed and 282 wounded). This moves the GV mujahedin ahead of the Nokchicho mujahedin, who have been plagued by a split within their ranks detailed in IIPER in recent months.  Doing the same for the OVKBK by including the KChR does not significantly change its inflicted casualty totals.

MUJAHEDIN CASUALTIES

According to my count, using Russian news sources, no less than approximately 340-351 mujahedin have been killed by federal and pro-Moscow local forces across Russia in the first ten months of this year.  This figure includes 5 jihadists killed in Bashkortostan; it remains unclear whether the Bashkir terrorists had ties with the CE.  In addition, 5-7 mujahedin have been wounded, and 226-281 have been detained during the same period.  For comparison, Russia’s National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAK) reported in October that law enforcement agencies had carried out more than 50 counter-terrorism operations in the North Caucasus Federal District in 2010 resulting in the “neutralization” of 301 mujahedin and the detention of 468 others.[10]  However, a month earlier, on September 22nd, North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) General Procurator Artem Melnikov reported that 160 fighters had been killed and more than 200 facilitators captured in the NCFD so far this year.[11] According to Kavkaz uzel, as of mid-October 75 mujahedin had been killed and 160 mujahedin and their ffaciliators had been detained in Chechnya.[12] Ingushetia police and security were able to kill 49 and capture 33 mujahedin during the first nine months of 2010.[13]  According to my count from Russian news sources, almost half of the 339 mujahedin killed in Russia in the first ten months of this year were killed in Dagestan – no less than approximately 160.  For camparison, the Russian news agency Regnum, citing Dagestani law enforcement, reported that 123 mujahedin were killed in Dagestan in the first eight months of 2010.[14]

SUICIDE ATTACKS

October saw two successful suicide bombings; one in Chechnya and another in Dagestan. September saw three successful suicide bombings; two in Dagestan and one in North Ossetia.  On October 19th the thirteenth suicide bombing attack of the year (counting the Moscow subway bombings as two separate attacks) occurred against the parliament building in Grozny.  Various accounts and casualty figures emerged from this attack.  Accounts varied as to whether there were two, three, four or more suicide attackers.  The most likely figure seems to be three suicide bombers.  Some accounts had six state agents killed, three wounded, and 11 civilians wounded; others had only three state agents killed.[15]  A later Kavkaz uzel report, citing an unidentified source, claimed that more than 20 law enforcementa and security personnel were killed and no less than 40 were wounded.[16]

On October 23rd, the fourteenth suicide attack of the year was perpetrated by a lone suicide car bomber in Khasavyurt, Dagestan on a police dormitory for police personnel being rotated from other regions in and out of the North Caucasus.  Casualty figures varied.  It appears 1-2 state agents were killed and 7-20 people were wounded, but it remained unclear how many were civilians and how many were not.[17]

With these attacks, there have been 14 suicide attacks carried out by CE-tied jihadists during the first ten months of this year, if one counts the coordinated Moscow subway attack by two suicide bombers as two separate attacks.  There were also three interdicted attacks in May.  These 14 successful attacks have used 24-25 suicide bombers (recall the use of reportedly 7 suicide bombers on Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov’s residence in Tsentaroi in September), have killed 34-48 state agents, wounded 112-159 state agents, killed 66 civilians, and wounded 298 civilians.  For comparison, according to Kavkaz uzel, as of the October suicide bombing attack in Khasavyurt, there had been 11 such attacks, using 13 suicide bombers, killing “no less than 50 people” and wounding “no less than 361” this year in Russia.[18]

The geography of these 14 suicide attacks so far this years looks as follows.  Six have been perpetrated in Dagestan, two in Ingushetia, two in North Ossetia (claimed by the Ingush GV mujahedin), two in Chechnya, and two in Moscow (the March 29th dual suicide bombing of the Moscow subway system).

SOURCES: http://www.kavkazcenter.com, http://www.jamaatshariat.com/ru, http://www.islamdin.ru, and hunafa.com, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru, http://www.ng.ru, http://www.izvestia.ru, http://www.kommersant.ru, http://www.retwa.org, among others.

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ANNOUNCEMENTS

NEW AMERICAN FOREIGN POLICY COUNCIL WORLD ALMANAC OF ISLAMISM

The American Foreign policy Council has recently published on the worldwide web its exhaustive World Almanac of Islamism.  The Almanac contains detailed overviews of all of the world’s Islamist and jihadist groups.  The Almanac is available at http://almanac.afpc.org/.  Gordon M. Hahn, wrote the chapter “Russia” for the World Almanac of Islamism which is available at http://almanac.afpc.org/Russia#.

PROF. HAHN TO SPEAK AT CSIS CONFERENCE “THE NORTHERN CAUCASUS: RUSSIA’S TINDERBOX”

Author and editor of IIPER, Prof. Gordon M. Hahn, will speak at the “The Northern Caucasus: Russia’s Tinderbox” to be held at, and under the auspices of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C. on November 30-December 1, 2010.  Prof. Hahn will be speaking along with Prof. Akhmet Yarlykapov of the Russian Academy of Sciences Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology.  They will comprise a panel on “The Rise of Islam in the North Caucasus.”

NEW NON-PROLIFERATION/TERRORISM STUDIES MASTER OF ARTS DEGREE AND TERRORISM STUDIES CERTIFICATE PROGRAMS

The Monterey Institute for International Studies has recently opted to combine its very popular and highly regarded M.A. International Policy Studies degree specializations in Terrorism Studies and Nonproliferation Studies into a combined new M.A. Program in Nonproliferation and Terrorism Studies, a program that will now have an even higher profile and greater institutional autonomy. Apart from combining two of the Institute’s strongest academic programs, this will ensure that students take the introductory courses in both subjects but will also allow them to concentrate primarily on either terrorism or nonproliferation (or, if they prefer, to focus on both subjects equally, e.g., on CBRN terrorism). As you may already know, our students have an exceptionally high success rate getting jobs in these specialized fields.

The Institute is also introducing a new one-semester (or one-year) Certificate in Terrorism Studies for professionals or students who wish to obtain specialized academic training in this subject without spending an entire two years in residence. Prospective students can be admitted into this Certificate Program without meeting the somewhat stringent language requirements that regular students must meet.

If you know of any students or professionals who might find this new program of particular interest, or who wish to obtain outstanding preparation for careers in these fields, or who wish to obtain further specialized training before going on to obtain a doctorate, it would be very much appreciated if let them know about our new program.

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Footnotes

[1] “Bolee 300 boevikov neitralizovany s nachala goda na Severnom Kavkaze,” Regnum, 3:00 12.10.2010, http://www.regnum.ru/news/1335122.html and “NAK Releases More Counter-Terror Statistics,” Retwa.com, 12 October 2010, http://www.retwa.com.

[2] “Kolichestvo teraktov,” Interfax, 25 October 2010, 14:37, http://www.interfax.ru/society/news.asp?id=161890&sw=%C8%E2%E0%ED+%D1%FB%E4%EE%F0%F3%EA&bd=8&bm=10&by=2010&ed=8&em=11&ey=2010&secid=0&mp=0&p=1 and “Is the Main Source of Chechen Rebel Weapons Georgia, or the Russian Army?”, Eurasia Daily Monitor, Jamestown Foundation, Vol. 7, Issue 196, 29 October 2010, 03:12, http://www.jamestown.org/single/?no_cache=1&tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=37102.

[3] “Bolee 300 boevikov neitralizovany s nachala goda na Severnom Kavkaze,” Regnum, 3:00 12.10.2010, http://www.regnum.ru/news/1335122.html

[4] “Nurgaliev zayavlyaet o protsesse v bor’be s boevikami v Dagestane,” Kavkaz uzel, 18 October 2010, 13:55, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175674/.

[5] “Nurgaliev zayavlyaet o protsesse v bor’be s boevikami v Dagestane,” Kavkaz uzel, 18 October 2010, 13:55, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175674/.

[6] “Vilaiyat G’alg’auche: Okkupanty podschitali chislo poter’ svoikh marionetok,” Kavkaz tsentr, 18 October 2010, 23:14, http://kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/18/75924.shtml citing official statements.

[7] “Nurgaliev zayavlyaet o protsesse v bor’be s boevikami v Dagestane,” Kavkaz uzel, 18 October 2010, 13:55, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175674/.

[8] “123 Fighters Killed in 2010,” Retwa.com, 13 September 2010, http://www.retwa.com.

[9] “Vilaiyat G’alg’auche: Okkupanty podschitali chislo poter’ svoikh marionetok,” Kavkaz tsentr, 18 October 2010, 23:14, http://kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/18/75924.shtml citing official statements.

[10] “Bolee 300 boevikov neitralizovany s nachala goda na Severnom Kavkaze,” Regnum, 3:00 12.10.2010, http://www.regnum.ru/news/1335122.html and “NAK Releases More Counter-Terror Statistics,” Retwa.com, 12 October 2010, http://www.retwa.com.

[11] “2010 North Caucasus Counter-Terror Statistics,” Retwa.com, 22 September 2010, http://www.retwa.com.

[12] “V Chechne ubit predpolagaemyi boevik, 28 October 2010, 10:30, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/176168/.

[13] “Vilaiyat G’alg’auche: Okkupanty podschitali chislo poter’ svoikh marionetok,” Kavkaz tsentr, 18 October 2010, 23:14, http://kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/18/75924.shtml citing official statements.

[14] “123 Fighters Killed in 2010,” Retwa.com, 13 September 2010, http://www.retwa.com.

[15] Musa Sadulayev and Simon Shuster, “Gunmen storm Parliament in Chechnya, 6 dead,” Associated Press, 19 October 2010, 12:35, http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/10/19/AR2010101900304.html?hpid=moreheadlines and “Modzhakhedy atakovali zdanie kadyrskogo ‘parlamenta’ v Dzhokare,” Kavkaz tsentr, 19 October 2010, 10:15, http://www.kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/19/75935.shtml.

[16]  “Vo vremya ataki na parlament v Groznom pogiblo bole 20 silovikov, utverzhdaet istochnik,” Kavkaz uzel, 28 October 2010, 11:50, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/176173/.

[17] “Vzryv v tsentre Khasavyurt 23 oktyabrya byl bolshoi sily,” Kavkaz uzel, 24 october 2010, 13:35, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175944/; “Dannyie o kolichestve postradavshikh pri terakte v Khasavyurte raznyatsya,” Kavkaz uzel, 24 October 2010, 00:33, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175926/; “Shakhidskaya operatsiya v Khasavyurte,” Kavkaz tsentr, 24 October 2010, 00:23, http://www.kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/24/76049.shtml; “Vilaiyat Dagestan: V Khsavyurte vzorvano obshchezhitie s kafirami iz chisla ‘kommandirovannykh’ militseiskikh band,” Kavkaz tsentr, 23 October 2010, 18:18 and 19:12, http://www.kavkazcenter.com/russ/content/2010/10/23/76046.shtml.

[18] “V Dagestane podorvalsya terrorist-smertnik,” Kavkaz uzel, 23 October 2010, 19:12, http://www.kavkaz-uzel.ru/articles/175920/.

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ABOUT IIPER

Islam, Islamism and politics in Eurasia report (IIPER) is a project of the Monterey Terrorism and Research and Education Program (MonTREP) at the Monterey Institute for International Studies (MIIS), Monterey, California.  It focuses on all politically-relevant issues involving or bearing on Islam and ethnic Muslim communities in Russia and Eurasia writ large.  All issues of IIPER can be found at http://www.miis.edu/academics/faculty/ghahn/report.

IIPER is compiled, edited and, unless indicated otherwise, written by Dr. Gordon M. Hahn.  Dr. Hahn is Senior Researcher at the Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program and Visiting Assistant Professor, Graduate School of International Policy Studies, Monterey Institute of International Studies, Monterey, California.  He is also a Senior Researcher, Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group and Analyst/Consultant for Russia Other Points of View – Russia Media Watch, http://www.russiaotherpointsofview.com.  He teaches courses on both politics and terrorism in Russia and Eurasia at MIIS.  Dr. Hahn is the author of two well-received books, Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007) and Russia’s Revolution From Above (Transaction, 2002) as well as numerous articles on Russian, Eurasian and international politics.

IIPER welcomes submissions of 1,500-6,000 words on any aspect of Islamic politics in Eurasia and financial contributions to support the project.  For related inquiries or to request to be included on IIPER’s mailing list, please contact gordon.hahn@miis.edu or gordon-hahn@sbcglobal.net.

Research assistance for IIPER is provided by Leonid Naboishchikov, Daniel Painter, and Daria Ushakova.

For additional information, please contact:

Dr. Gordon Hahn

Senior Researcher and WMD Terrorism Database Manager

Monterey Terrorism Research and Education Program (MonTREP)

460 Pierce Street

Monterey, CA – 93940 USA

Tel: (831) 647-3535 Fax: (831) 647-6522

Email: gordon.hahn@miis.edu