Some competent analysts, such as Dr. Gilbert Doctorow, are saying that because of Russia’s ostensibly slow progress in the NATO-Russia Ukrainian War, Russian President Vladimir Putin may soon lose power. He has pointed to two apparent threats: one ‘from below’ and one ‘from above.’ From below, in society, Doctorow seemed to imply the possibility of unrest by arguing that Putin’s tenure in office could be “in its last days” evidenced by the Kremlin’s resort, in a few cases, to secluding war dissidents in psychiatric hospitals, repeating one of the most despicable Soviet era policies (https://mail.google.com/mail/u/0/#search/Doctorow/FMfcgzQgKvFldtMQTSKWMWjrqphkwvz). From above, political faction favoring military maximalism – real war – against Maidan Ukraine instead of the current strategy of, what I have termed, ‘attrit and advance.’ Doctorow cited influential, state-run television analytical and talks shows leveling harsh criticism against Putin’s approach to conducting the war (www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJE1OqaKEv8).
Regarding the potential threat ‘from below’, the Putin era has seen a pattern of rather surgical repression against dissidents. There is no mass or even middling broad scope ‘terror’ or even arrests. Putin’s soft authoritarian regime has consistently carried out selective repression on a scale of isolated cases, spread out sparsely over time, place, and population precisely in order to avoid mass disaffection from the Putin government. The scale of repression remains approximately the same as it was before the war. ……….. . . . . . . . . . . . .
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About the Author –
Gordon M. Hahn, Ph.D., is an Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, www.canalyt.com. Websites: Russian and Eurasian Politics, gordonhahn.com and gordonhahn.academia.edu
Dr. Hahn is the author of the new book: Russian Tselostnost’: Wholeness in Russian Thought, Culture, History, and Politics (Europe Books, 2022). He has authored five previous, well-received books: The Russian Dilemma: Security, Vigilance, and Relations with the West from Ivan III to Putin (McFarland, 2021); Ukraine Over the Edge: Russia, the West, and the “New Cold War” (McFarland, 2018); The Caucasus Emirate Mujahedin: Global Jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus and Beyond (McFarland, 2014), Russia’s Islamic Threat (Yale University Press, 2007), and Russia’s Revolution From Above: Reform, Transition and Revolution in the Fall of the Soviet Communist Regime, 1985-2000 (Transaction, 2002). He also has published numerous think tank reports, academic articles, analyses, and commentaries in both English and Russian language media.
Dr. Hahn taught at Boston, American, Stanford, San Jose State, and San Francisco State Universities and as a Fulbright Scholar at Saint Petersburg State University, Russia and was a senior associate and visiting fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Kennan Institute in Washington DC, the Hoover Institution at Stanford University, and the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group.